I'm going to skip the buildup and just give you the thing.

For the entire first month of the 2026 season, Mid-Major Matt and I have been tracking every single K prop start. Every lineup. Every pitcher handedness. Every result. Not just how many strikeouts each lineup allows — but how often the over or under is actually cashing.

Today I turned that data into something you can actually use.

The first piece of it? Completely free.

🎁 Your Free Download: The 2026 MLB Lineup K Averages Guide (Through April 30)

This ranks all 30 MLB lineups 1–30 by average strikeouts allowed per start — broken out three ways:

Rank 1 = hardest lineup in baseball to strike out. Rank 30 = most K-prone. When you're looking at a K prop tonight, pull this up first. If your pitcher is facing a top-5 lineup in this guide, think twice before taking the over. If they're facing a bottom-5? That's where we start building a case.

This is a living document — I'll be updating it throughout the season as the numbers develop. The April 30 snapshot is your starting point.

Download it. Bookmark it. Use it tonight.

Did you miss the one-batter-only Hit Streak Survivor format like I did?

Our last few Splash Sports contests had you picking two batters a day — both had to get a hit to stay alive. The prize pools were bigger ($35K), but I heard you loud and clear: picking two is hard. One bad lineup decision, one cold bat, one late scratch and you're done. The margin for error is tough.

Well, Splash Sports heard it too.

Ariel's $20K Hit Streak Survivor is back — and you only have to pick ONE batter a day.

One batter. Gets a hit. You advance. That's it.

No sweating a second pick. No getting eliminated because your second guy got pulled in the 5th. Just you and one batter a night that gets a hit.

There's also a Cycle Jackpot built in — if the batter you pick hits for the cycle that day, you win a bonus $10,000. First eligible entry to pick a cycle hitter takes it.

The contest is $20 to enter, 1,112 spots total — and as a premium subscriber you're getting first dibs before I push this anywhere else. These fill up fast. Our last one was gone before the weekend was over and I have a feeling this one goes even quicker given the one-batter format.

👉 Grab your spot here: https://app.splashsports.com/contest/efe2ce9d-881c-4822-8abf-4a0e272ee645/detail

Use code PROPQUEEN at entry if it’s your first time entering!

Don't sit on this one. 🏃‍♀️

The averages tell you the tendency. They tell you which lineups historically strike out more. But here's the question the averages can't answer on their own:

Is the market pricing it correctly?

Because a lineup that strikes out a lot doesn't automatically make every K prop an over. If the books already know that lineup is K-prone, they've priced it in. The real edge is finding the lineups where the number is wrong — where overs or unders are cashing at a rate the line isn't accounting for.

That's what the second piece of the data tracks.

The 2026 MLB Lineup K Prop Over/Under Records Guide ranks all 30 lineups by their actual over/under K prop record — overall, vs. righties, and vs. lefties — with the over percentage right there on every row so you can see the lean instantly.

It's the document that turns a good K prop process into a great one.

Both of these guides are included in your membership at no extra cost — along with every daily K prop board cut I drop throughout the season. You've got the full toolkit. Head to the premium archive and they're already waiting for you.

Not premium yet? The records guide is the first paid product I've released this season built entirely from original tracked data — not aggregated stats, not public box scores repackaged. This is the spreadsheet Mid-Major Matt and I have been building start by start since Opening Day, turned into something you can use in under 60 seconds.

If you've ever wanted to know whether to trust a K prop number before you place it — this is how you start doing that.

— Ariel 👑

P.S. — The averages guide is free. Grab it, use it and if it changes the way you look at K props, you'll know exactly where to find the rest of the research.