These games profile closer than the spreads suggest once pace, roster availability, and defensive strengths are accounted for. Two matchups feature slow offenses, similar efficiency profiles, and minimal opt-out impact, which makes early unders and inflated favorites vulnerable. The third stands out due to defensive attrition on both sides, shifting the edge toward points rather than sides.
MATTāS CORNER
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Northwestern (-10.5) vs. Central Michigan O/U 43
Ford Field in Detroit, MI
Weather: In a dome
Opt-Outs/Transfers: Both teams should be pretty much intact for this one. CMU has one defensive lineman in the portal, but he didn't play a ton.
Motivation: Northwestern limped down the stretch with losses in four of their last five. CMU gets a crack at a P4 opponent so they should be thrilled for this opportunity.
Edges: Both teams profile almost the same. Middle of the road rush defenses and pretty good against the pass. They both are slow offensively as well averaging around 30 seconds per play.Ā
Verdict: Small plays on the 1st quarter under 9.5 and CMU +10.5 overall. Motivation is with the MAC school in a low scoring game.Ā
Mid Major Matt gives an early College Football Playoff preview ā¬
Subscribe to the YouTube Channel for more insights from the Prop Queen Pod!
Subscribe to Prop Queen Sports to read the rest.
Gain access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
SubscribeSubscribers Can Gain Access To:
- Help make your prop betting process simpler!
- In-depth matchup research breaking down defensive tendencies, game script and where props are most likely to be mispriced
- Updated charts, guides and cheat sheets for no extra cost (non premium members pay extra)
- Exclusive MLB prop spreadsheet hitting around 60 percent each season
- A disciplined framework for evaluating props, including what to target, what to fade and how to think through each slate without guessing.