While the Prop Queen's at the Yankee Stadium (again) Jared Block’s got ya covered.
You already know the deal — when the Prop Queen is in the seats, the newsletter doesn't take a day off. It just gets a guest editor.
I'm headed to the Bronx for today's game so I handed today's board over to our good friend Jared Block of Trinity Analytics. If you've been reading this newsletter for any amount of time, you know Jared. He's one of the sharpest minds in the props space, and today he came locked and loaded.
Below is his full list for Sunday. Read it carefully. There's real research behind every single one of these.
🔒 TRINITY'S PROP BOARD — SUNDAY, MAY 3
✅ Chase Burns OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Burns has back-to-back outings with 8 strikeouts and now draws a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 10th-highest in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Five hitters in this lineup are whiffing at 25%+ against this handedness in that same window. Burns carries a 27% collective K% over the last month. He may take some damage from lefties, but the strikeout upside here is significant.
✅ Jesús Luzardo OVER 17.5 Pitching Outs
Luzardo faces his former team in a pitcher-friendly environment on a Sunday afternoon slate. After a few rocky starts, he settled in nicely last time out — tossing 7 shutout innings against the Giants. The Marlins carry the 3rd-worst wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Expect a long outing from Luzardo here.
🌬️ Merrill Kelly OVER 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Yes, you read that right. This is not a prop against Kelly — this IS the prop. Outside of Zack Littell, Kelly has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last month, surrendering 15 runs in his last 14.2 innings. Today he faces a Cubs offense that ranks 2nd-best vs. right-handed pitching the last two weeks — at hitter-friendly Wrigley, with winds ripping out to center and temps hovering near 60. The shelling continues.
✅ Julio Rodríguez OVER 5.5 Fantasy Points
J-Rod has cleared double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four appearances. Against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days, he's slashing a ridiculous 200 wRC+ with a .480 ISO. Bubic has real vulnerability to right-handed bats — 4.24 xFIP, 25.3% K%, .339 wOBA, .408 SLG. Rod is locked in right now. Lean in.
✅ Jack Leiter OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Leiter has allowed 3+ earned runs in four consecutive outings. Detroit ranks 10th-best offensively vs. right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and they have the 4th-lowest strikeout rate against that handedness in that same stretch. Leiter will face six hitters with above-average wRC+ profiles vs. RHP — five of whom carry a wOBA over .400 since mid-April: Kevin McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson.
🏆 DEADLINE IS TUESDAY!!!
Did you miss the one-batter-only Hit Streak Survivor format like I did?
Our last few Splash Sports contests had you picking two batters a day — both had to get a hit to stay alive. The prize pools were bigger ($35K), but I heard you loud and clear: picking two is hard. One bad lineup decision, one cold bat, one late scratch and you're done. The margin for error is tough.
Well, Splash Sports heard it too.
Ariel's $20K Hit Streak Survivor is back — and you only have to pick ONE batter a day.
One batter. Gets a hit. You advance. That's it.
No sweating a second pick. No getting eliminated because your second guy got pulled in the 5th. Just you and one batter a night that gets a hit.
There's also a Cycle Jackpot built in — if the batter you pick hits for the cycle that day, you win a bonus $10,000. First eligible entry to pick a cycle hitter takes it.
The contest is $20 to enter, 1,112 spots total — and as a premium subscriber you're getting first dibs before I push this anywhere else. These fill up fast. Our last one was gone before the weekend was over and I have a feeling this one goes even quicker given the one-batter format.
👉 Grab your spot here: https://app.splashsports.com/contest/efe2ce9d-881c-4822-8abf-4a0e272ee645/detail
Use code PROPQUEEN at entry if it’s your first time entering!
Don't sit on this one. 🏃♀️
How to do the research for the contest ⤵
Want more of the Trinity Analytics Crew?
Jared and the Trinity Analytics team put out a full prop board daily — in-depth, data-backed, and built for bettors who actually want to understand the why behind every play.
Right now, you can try their Triple Play package for $1 for your first week.
No BS. Just research. You'll see why I trust Jared with my readers.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have a baseball game to watch. Go Yankees.
— Ariel
Ariel Epstein, known as the Prop Queen, turned her passion for fantasy sports and prop betting into a career. After years of working for other media companies and sportsbooks, it’s time to share her knowledge, preparation and analysis with other sports bettors.
