⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

K PROP TRENDS (American League)

Hi all PQ subscribers! I cannot believe it is almost MLB season! The OFFICIAL Opening Day of the season is March 27th. Yes I know March 18th and 19th is the Tokyo Series and that counts as the regular season. I still refuse to declare that Opening Day.

The last few seasons, Mid Major Matt and I have used our own strikeout prop spreadsheet to bet K props. This is the market that gave me the Prop Queen name in the sports betting space. Premium subscribers will have access to the daily K prop spreadsheet. However, to start the season, I’m going to provide you with last year’s K prop trends

You may say, huh? This is last year. Yeah teams change of course. To start the season, it’s good to have some numbers to work off of. Then, we will adjust. The strikeout prop spreadsheet works off lineups. Do starters tend to go over or under more against different lineups? How much do righty-lefty splits impact those over/unders? You’d be surprised. After doing this spreadsheet for the last five years, I’d say any lineup averaging 5+ Ks against a starting pitcher is high. Lineups averaging 4.3 Ks or less is typically very low.

Today, we’ll start with the American League ⤵️ 

K PROP CORNER

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

Overall: Starting pitchers were 79-78 over/under vs. BAL avg. 4.8 Ks/start

Righties: 55-60 o/u vs. BAL avg. 4.5 Ks/start

Lefties: 24-18 o/u vs. BAL avg. 5.8 Ks/start

*As you can see, the lefty-righty splits are pretty significant when it comes to the Orioles. Lefty starters had much more success striking out the Orioles lineup than righties.

Boston Red Sox

Overall: Starting pitchers were 75-76 o/u their K prop vs. BOS avg. 5.5 Ks/start.

Righties: 53-62 o/u vs. BOS avg. 5.1 Ks/start

Lefties: 22-14 o/u vs. BOS avg. 6.6 Ks/start

*The Red Sox struck out A LOT last year, especially against lefties. Like I said before, 5+ Ks for a starter against a lineup is high. 6?!?! Lefty starters had a field day in the strike zone with the Red Sox last year.

New York Yankees

Overall: Starting pitchers were 86-83 o/u their K prop vs. NYY avg. 4.8 Ks/start.

Righties: 62-62 o/u vs. NYY avg. 4.7 Ks/start

Lefties: 24-21 o/u vs. NYY avg. 5 Ks/start

*This puts the Yankees on the border of a starting pitcher’s K prop. The numbers are on the higher side, but not as high as others. I marked them around league average and didn’t bet many Ks against the Bronx Bombers. (Not being a homer. They’re a very public team and numbers were pretty spot on).

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall starting pitchers were 86-70 o/u their K prop vs. TB avg. 5.5 Ks/start.

Righties: 72-47 o/u vs. TB avg. 5.6 Ks/start

Lefties: 14-23 o/u vs. TB avg. 5.2 Ks/start

*Unlike the Orioles and Red Sox who struck out significantly more against lefties than righties, the Rays did not discriminate. They struck out a lot against everyone. What’s crazy is looking at the over/unders. Righties went over their K props a ton, but lefties didn’t. It all comes down to booking good numbers. Usually I’d bet over 4.5 or 5.5 Ks no problem against a team like the Rays. A lot of lefties had 6.5 K props against TB and those were just a bit too high. The Rays started the year striking out a lot against righties, but as always, the books caught on.

Toronto Blue Jays

Overall starting pitchers were 72-79 o/u their K prop vs. TOR avg. 4.3 Ks/start.

Righties: 55-63 o/u vs. TOR avg. 4.2 Ks/start

Lefties: 17-16 o/u vs. TOR avg. 4.8 Ks/start

*The least strikeout prone team in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays. Yup. I try to tell everyone, wins and losses aren’t correlated to strikeouts. The Jays were one of the lower K rate lineups last season. Righty starters struggled to get the Jays to swing and miss. Lefties were a bit more average against them.

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