⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

MLB FUTURES (American League)

Hi all PQ subscribers. Since I’m away on vacation, it feels like the perfect time to talk about some MLB futures! The REAL Opening Day is March 27th. There’s a reason I tend to wait for MLB futures.

Take Yankees ace Gerrit Cole for example. He didn’t make it out of Spring Training and now has to get Tommy John surgery. It’s not like I was betting the Yankees futures to begin with; however, he’s out for the season and that significantly alters the way I look at the Yankees and the American League.

That said, I’m going to give my favorite futures bets for each division.

AL Futures

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

Here’s what’s crazy when evaluating the AL East— The Orioles either have the same or shorter odds than the Red Sox to win the division. The Yankees are the favorites, but EVERYONE AND THEIR MOTHER is high on the Red Sox. The book isn’t. Why? Well, last year the Orioles had an ace Corbin Burnes. The O’s finished second in the division with 91 wins. The year before? 101 wins for Baltimore and they won the AL East. Their starting rotation was Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells. Are we sleeping on the Orioles?

Yeah, pitching wins you championships The Orioles have to rely on Zach Eflin, an old Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano (in his first year in MLB) and hope Grayson Rodriguez gets healthy. My thought on the Orioles is somewhat of a buy low situation. They got back their closer Felix Bautista after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. Outside of the O’s young lineup, the key to their success in 2023 was that bullpen. Yennier Cano setting up Bautista was deadly for opposing lineups.

The Orioles’ lineup is fun and can hit the heck out of the ball. They were top 10 in nearly every offensive category. At first, I wanted to bet all the unders on the Orioles. I was purely just infuriated with their lack of desire to keep an ace. Now that I’ve given them a closer look, I think their odds to win the division at +275, go over their 86.5 win total and win the American League are pretty good. I look at it as buying low. If they get hot or even pick up someone big at the trade deadline, say goodbye to a good number.

Boston Red Sox

The team EVERYONE is high on. I was too. Now I’m scared. EVERYONE LOVES THEM! Guess who everyone loved last year? The Diamondbacks. Guess who didn’t make the playoffs last year? The Diamondbacks. I hate betting on the team everyone loves. Sure, on paper the Red Sox look great. Trust me, I’m not shaming the Red Sox because I’m a Yankees fan. I actually HOPE the Red Sox do well this year so the Yankees feel the pressure. I am purely worried for how public this Boston team is. I still think Red Sox fans should be very excited about the season.

Boston improved their starting rotation with Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Lucas Giolito should return from surgery on his right UCL. Garrett Whitlock leaves the starting rotation and is back in the bullpen where he dominated his rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. He’s good for bulk innings too. The lineup is a monster. Bregman, Dever, Story, Duran, Yoshida, this was already a top 10 lineup last year and they got better.

You kind of missed the boat on betting some Red Sox futures if you haven’t already. Their win total was 84.5, now it’s 86.5. Since the Gerrit Cole injury, the Red Sox moved from +1000 to +800 to win the AL Pennant. To win the division the Red Sox are +350, which is a great price; however, I have a play that I like better. The Red Sox to make the playoffs is now -130.

AL Futures

American League Central

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are my sleeper team this year. While everyone’s high on the Royals, I’m going to Detroit. I like them over 83.5 wins, to make the playoffs +112 and to win the division +270.

The Tigers have a top 5 bullpen and I’m a sucker for a good bullpen. They added Jack Flaherty who compliments Tarik Skubal as a great 1-2 punch. They’re a young team that will feel confident after sweeping the Astros in the Wild Card series and taking Cleveland to game five of the ALDS. Manager AJ Hinch FINALLY got Detroit into the playoffs in his fourth season as manager. In Houston, Hinch had 100+ wins in three of his five seasons. The manager gives them the edge to me over the Royals.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are so interesting. At some books, they were tied with the Tigers at +270 (second shortest odds to win the division) and at other books they were +310! The Royals to make the playoffs is +110. I like both these plays (I like the Tigers a bit more to win the division and Royals to make the playoffs).

The Royals lineup got better. They added Jonathan India to the leadoff spot. Kansas City had the worst leadoff on-base percentage last year. It was way under. 300. India’s career OBP is .350. Put India in front of Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez that is a TOUGH top of the lineup.

The Royals bullpen was the problem ranking 20th in ERA last year. They got better by adding Carlos Estevez in the offseason. If Hunter Harvey is healthy, he’ll be a great setup man for Esteves.

AL Futures

American League West

This division is tough. The Astros always slump at the beginning of the year and find a way to just win the division in the second half. The Mariners always get hot in just the nick of time to make you sweat out a future on them. As for the Rangers, I love manager Bruce Bochy, but that starting rotation is OLD.

Athletics

Here’s the thing with the Athletics, they don’t have a home. They left Oakland and are now playing in Sacramento at a minor league baseball stadium. I expect it to take some time for them to adjust and in the case of a win total, every game matters.

The A’s starting rotation is a bunch of… hand-me-downs? Luis Severino had an improved year last year with the Mets, but he has injury concerns. Southpaw Jeffrey Springs is the number two and also has injury concerns. JP Sears is not trustworthy. The best part of this team’s pitching staff is closer Mason Miller. The bullpen carried this team and now they lost Lucas Erceg, Austin Adams and Scott Alexander.

As for the lineup, Brent Rooker had the best season of his career last year. He had a career high 39 home runs hitting .293. Can he really maintain that? Probably not. In total, only seven A’s hitters had a wRC+ of 102 or better. Only four of them were everyday players. My lean would be under 71.5 wins -106.